A significant number of public figures have changed their minds since last year. These have come from various perspectives, responding to the guarantees which we have received in December 2008 on the Commission and in June 2009 on a range of issues, and the general change in the economic climate of the country.
Ben Dunne |
Half the Picture
This poster is deceptive in that it tells the truth, but not the full truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. In fact, it only refers to one part of the voting process instead of the two elements that are needed for a vote to take place in the Council of Ministers! Why only tell half the story when voters should be given the full picture?
Here’s how voting in the Council of Ministers will really work if Lisbon is ratified:
As previously noted here, a recent Indecon survey reported that 90.8% of economists asked said that Ireland’s overall economic interests were likely to be best secured by a Yes vote.
These were economists from the seven Irish universities, from the ESRI and from Indecon itself. Economists working for the media, banks, government departments or agencies, or with employer or trade union organisations were not included.
In light of this, we held a seminar earlier today titled Economists for Europe, chaired by Dr Alan Ahearne, Special Advisor for the Minister for Finance, and with presentations from Dr Alan Gray of Indecon, Prof. Antoin Murphy of Trinity College, David Croughan of IBEC and Paul Sweeney of ICTU (so, of course, only Gray and Murphy contributed to the Indecon survey).
In his opening remarks, Dr Ahearne reported that the American Chamber of Commerce have said that they provide 300,000 reasons to vote Yes. He emphasised the benefit our EU membership gives us as a traditionally export-based economy, which is to be the case again after the brief period earlier this decade when we were demand-based. 62% of our exports go to other EU countries. Given this emphasis in our economy, he said that it was important for us that the globalised world functioned well.
Declan Ganley has made a lot of what the current President of the European Council, Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, about what solution the European Council would find to the problem of number of Commissioners if we failed to ratify the Lisbon Treaty. His answer reflects the reality the EU does try to find the most satisfactory solution to unsatisfactory situations. The current requirement, under the Nice Treaty rules, is that there is a maximum of 26 on the Commission, to come into effect at the next Commission, to be appointed this year. The Council agreement of December 2008, which could only come into effect with Lisbon, would reverse this, so that every country would have a Commissioner.
Mr Reinfeldt said that there could be 26 Commissioners, and that the position of High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, could be assigned to the 27th country. This is not a good enough solution, as the holder of that position should be the best qualified, and not necessarily be someone from the country who misses out on the Commissioner by lot in the rotation. It is not a place on the table of the College of Commissioners which was of such an issue to the Irish people. The High Representative would not have a vote at the table. This does not address our concerns.
But the real problem is that this is only a temporary solution. The EU will expand, and then such an arrangement will fall apart.
Last year’s referendum in June 2008 took place under very different economic circumstances. While Bear Stearns had collapsed in March, and it was clear that the credit crunch had arrived, few realised what the true extent of the crisis would entail. The rise of unemployment in July of 19,000 was the highest ever monthly increase, and from then there seemed to be little good news. As unemployment grew, the pressure on the state’s social welfare budget grew while the tax intake shrank. The government found itself in a considerable deficit which two budgets and public sector pay renegotiation has failed to fully address. After guaranteeing the banks’ debt in September 2008, both the state and public found borrowing more costly as the major credit-rating agencies Moody’s and Standard and Poors downgraded Irish banks and Ireland’s credit sovereign rating.
We face this referendum then with a widely different economic situation. Both employers and unions realize how important it is to maintain a strong relation with Europe so that Irish bonds do not fall further in their standing in international markets. A vote that could be interpreted as eurosceptic would add uncertainty to our standing of our banks. Leading international firms, Intel, Ryanair, and Microsoft, have clearly stated their support for the implementation of the Treaty, taking active roles in calling for a Yes vote. Equally, ICTU General Secretary David Begg is a Patron of Ireland for Europe and, speaking on Tuesday, he stated that rejection of the Lisbon Treaty, allied to the return to power of the Conservative Party in Britain, could see Ireland “boxed in an Anglo-Saxon, Eurosceptic, northwestern corner of Europe” and could seriously hit Irish jobs.
These are the people who deal day-in, day-out with Irish employment, and they have clearly committed themselves to a Yes vote.
Our volunteers at the National Ploughing Championships have been overwhelmed by the positive support they’ve received. Farmers have been going out of their way to show their support for our volunteers and the Treaty. While the Irish Farmers Association have been backing the Treaty for a while, it’s great to see visible support for Lisbon on the ground as well.
Deirdre canvassing at the Ploughing Championships
It’s really encouraging to note a recent opinion poll which says that 80% of farmers will vote yes in the forthcoming referendum. The recent front page of the Irish Farmers’ Journal demonstrates that farmers are distinguishing between the ratification of the Treaty and their justifiable anger with the government.
There are threats facing Irish agriculture, many of which cannot be tackled by Ireland alone. Problems such as dumping from international markets and competition from low cost, low quality global competitors require a Europe wide approach as envisioned by the Lisbon Treaty.
Those on our side of this debate have been criticized for linking the Lisbon Treaty with jobs or recovery. It is, of course, not as simple as a claim that there will be jobs that will be created or maintained directly because of the vote on the Treaty, but it is part of the process. It is because of the reality that we attracted multinationals to this country for many reasons, such as our low tax rates and our well-educated English-speaking population, but also because we provided a link to a European Union which now has a population of 500 million.
If we were to vote No, the appetite for reform among other European countries would not be diminished. But with the likely election of the highly Eurosceptic David Cameron as Prime Minister, the United Kingdom could well decide to opt out of that process. After a second No vote, European leaders could justly assume that we had made our decision clear that we did not wish to be part of that process either. While the United Kingdom could afford to go it alone if they wished, we should not consider this an option for us.
It is true that we will remain members of the European Union no matter what way we vote on 2 October. But a No vote will mean that we will not be a part of core decision-making processes. Particularly for those who have had concerns about EU policies in the past, such as on agriculture and fisheries, it is crucial that Irish voices are heard at all levels of the EU.
In an earlier post, I looked at the support that prominent Catholics have given to the European project. Of particular note in recent weeks have been a few Jesuits, making their voice heard first in their objection to Cóir’s misuse of Caravaggio’s The Taking of Christ.
In this video, Fr Edmond Grace, SJ, answers the question why we should be voting on the Lisbon Treaty again, given last year’s rejection.
Also worth checking, is a blog by Fr Fergus O’Donoghue, SJ, who has posted a few items recently on the Lisbon Treaty.
Yesterday, as I walked out of Croke Park, after a superb All-Ireland final, I found myself suddenly frozen in shock. My stomach churned and I felt absolutely sick to the core.
In front of my eyes, on a poll in Jones Road, lay the most disturbing, grotesque and shocking piece of political propaganda I’d ever seen in Ireland.
